Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Peak Oil is a Myth

I just read an interesting article in the Globe and Mail on U.S. oil production.  Here is the quote that I found most interesting.

The coming change, according to Bentek, is startling: By 2016, the U.S. will surpass its 1970 oil production peak of 9.6 million barrels a day; by 2022, it will have leapt to 11.6 million barrels a day.

So much for peak oil, it's clearly a myth. 

When you don't account for changes in technology and prices, sure peak oil sound reasonable.  The problem is you can't treat a dynamic situation as a static analysis.  Assumptions make for pretty formulas but don't reflect reality. 

For the full article:

In other news, the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources just reported record oil production of 20 million barrels in July.  That is up 59% from the year before.  If you step back and look at the big picture, oil production in the state is up 7 times in 7 years.  Remarkable.   


1 comment:

  1. Vaclav Smil has a few interesting books on this topic. Energy myths and realities and a beginners guide to oil are both books of his i am currently reading.

    I read somewhere that Vaclav was tutoring Warrens buddy Bill on the "energy" subject. It may have been from Poor Charlies Almanac, another current almost finished book.

    I like your blog. Despite what you wrote a while back i disagree with you and even one interesting idea you have may "snowball" into another.

    I agree 110% when you say value investing is all reading, but not when you say that no good ideas can be found on the internet.