Monday, December 6, 2010

Margin of Safety - Downside Risk

“The research task does not end with the discovery of an apparent bargain. It is incumbent on investors to try to find out why the bargain has become available. If in 1990 you were looking for an ordinary, four-bedroom colonial home on a quarter acre in the Boston suburbs, you should have been prepared to pay at least $300,000. If you learned of one available for $150,000, your first reaction would not have been, "What a great bargain!" but, "What's wrong with it?"

The same healthy skepticism applies to the stock market. A bargain should be inspected and reinspected for possible flaws.  Irrational or indifferent selling alone may have made it cheap, but there may be more fundamental reasons for the depressed price. Perhaps there are contingent liabilities or pending litigation that you are unaware of. Maybe a competitor is preparing to introduce a superior product.”

Margin of Safety - Seth Klarman– Page 153-154

I have been thoroughly enjoying reading Seth Klarman’s book, Margin of Safety, the past little while.  When I read this passage my mind instantly went to ATPG, and all the comments on my article.  Almost all comments and articles highlight the huge value in ATPG while completely ignoring any potential issues. 

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  1. ATPG has a value of 90 or so and the market is starting to warm up to the stock again.

  2. Hi Crispycrunch,

    I also see the shortsellers are warming up to the stock as well as short interest is still near an all time high. Days to cover are running at all time highs. Their debt will take them down.

    Thanks for you comments.