Saturday, October 23, 2010

Removed from Devin Shire's Blog

This was my comment on Devin Shires Blog

It has since been removed. 

Come on Devin you can't be serious?

I know you will probably remove this response so I will be sure to post it on my blog anyway. 

First there is so much bunk in this article the readers can try to determine truth from fantasy.  You seem to know a lot about me and how I analyzed this company.  Again more speculation. 

Let me respond to your summary of points I am missing in my valuation. 

1) Ignoring undeveloped acreage.  Please inform me of the value, or should I say please speculate on the value. 

2) Petrominerales’ portfolio of highly prospective properties.  Again please inform me of the value, or as you said "prospective" properties. 

3) Heavy oil assets yet to be booked as reserves.  Again, please inform me of the (specutive) value...

4) Shell and Baytex.  Here you are half correct, they are partners but PBG owns the THAI technology.  That is not what I said.  I said Shell and Baytex knows how well the joint wells are performing and decided to sell.  Why did they sell, I offered my opinion lets have yours. 

As a value investor, you seem to be doing a fair bit of speculating on 1, 2, & 3 above.  If you want to call that value investing go ahead, but you need a new definition. 


Please note: I did not attack your analysis in my post but simply presented the facts.  Stop the childish attacks of my character and stick to the facts.


  1. Certainly the value of Petrobakken's undeveloped Bakken acreage is higher than zero. The geological risk is pretty much non-existent.

  2. Kevin,

    I actually didn't remove your comment. Not sure how it gets removed without my approval. I'd by happy to have it on there.

    Need to ask....why did you ignore the value of Candelilla in your valuation of Petrominerales ?

    Is it because you aren't aware of the discoveries that occurred subsequent to year end ? They aren't in the PV10 numbers that you have used because they were hit in early 2010.

    Are they material to PMG's value ? I'd say yes since they have already doubled the companies production. Link below is to an analyst report (Alan Knowles). His title is "Candelilla is a game changer for PMG".

    Thought you should be aware of this as it doubles (or more) PMG's reserve value.

    You may choose to value it at zero like you do for 75% of Petrobakken's Bakken property and 100% of their Cardium property.

  3. no offense but kevin, i don't think the discussion is worth it coz this guy his kind of hooked with analyst report....this is so not value investing...

    u should devote more time on other productive stuff since you are already juggling between engineering and investing...

  4. Thanks Anonymous,

    I agree, this is not getting anywhere. I gave a base case valuation and some other interesting comments regarding the companies. That is a definite starting point for discussion. To state that this is a "no brainer" and this company is going to the moon is simply not realistic.

    I am still waiting for a breakdown on the bull side as to how he arrives at $80 per share. Obviously I am missing a lot.


  5. I don't understand. Devon Shire's link on Seeking Alpha jumps to your old Blog - Canadian Value Investing.

    Are you erasing your own comments, from your own Blog??!

  6. That is not my old blog.

    I don't know who Devin is, but his link on seeking alpha goes to his blog.

    We are definitely different people and I wouldn't touch half the investments he goes for.

    Perhaps I should have chosen a different blog name. Too late now.

  7. What's your take on ATPG?

    Devon has written about it extensively and I note that you have oil and gas in your background.

    Personally, it looks like a buy. NAV is below the share price and there is considerable production coming online in the near future that should act as a catalyst to unlock value.

    I would appreciate your thoughts.


  8. Jason,

    I will take a look, and make some notes. It might not be right away as I am quite busy with work and it's deer hunting season.

    Thanks for your comment.